3北京Běijīng起初qǐchū仍réng有yǒu理由lǐyóu保持bǎochí戒心jièxīn，因為yīnwèi因为yīnwèi川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ任命rènmìng多名duōmíng中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó批評者pīpíngzhě批评者pīpíngzhě擔任dānrèn担任dānrèn國安guó’ān国家安全guójiā ānquán要職yàozhí要职yàozhí，包括bāokuò魯比歐Lǔbǐ’ōu鲁比奥Lǔbǐ’ào出任chūrèn國務卿guówùqīng国务卿guówùqīng、沃茲Wòzī沃尔兹Wò’ěrzī擔任dānrèn担任dānrèn國家guójiā国家guójiā安全ānquán顧問gùwèn顾问gùwèn，以及yǐjí拉特克里夫Lātèkèlǐfū拉特克利夫Lātèkèlìfū出任chūrèn中央情報局Zhōngyāng Qíngbàojú中央情报局Zhōngyāng Qíngbàojú（CIA）局長júzhǎng局长júzhǎng。國防部長guófáng bùzhǎng国防部长guófáng bùzhǎng赫塞斯Hèsāisī赫格塞思Hègésèsī的de立場lìchǎng立场lìchǎng較jiào较jiào不bù明確míngquè明确míngquè，但dàn也yě不bù被bèi視為shìwéi视为shìwéi對中duì Zhōng对华duì Huá軟弱ruǎnruò软弱ruǎnruò；財政部長cáizhèng bùzhǎng财政部长cáizhèng bùzhǎng貝森特Bèisēntè贝森特Bèisēntè被bèi認為rènwéi认为rènwéi比bǐ前qián幾任jǐrèn几任jǐrèn財長cáizhǎng财长cáizhǎng對duì对duì中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó更gèng強硬qiángyìng强硬qiángyìng，美國Měiguó美国Měiguó貿易màoyì贸易màoyì代表dàibiǎo葛里爾Gělǐ’ěr格里尔Gélǐ’ěr在zài貿易màoyì贸易màoyì及jí安全ānquán議題yìtí议题yìtí上shàng也yě同樣tóngyàng同样tóngyàng強勢qiángshì强势qiángshì。

At first, Beijing still had reason to be wary, because Trump appointed several China critics to key national security posts: Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser, and John Ratcliffe as Director of the CIA. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s position was less clear, but he was not seen as soft on China either. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was considered tougher on China than his predecessors, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was just as forceful on trade and security issues.

4不過bùguò不过bùguò，中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó早已zǎoyǐ為wèi为wèi川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ回歸huíguī回归huíguī做好zuòhǎo準備zhǔnbèi准备zhǔnbèi。川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ2025年nián4月yuè發動fādòng发动fādòng全球quánqiú貿易戰màoyìzhàn贸易战màoyìzhàn並bìng并bìng對duì对duì中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó大幅dàfú加徵jiāzhēng加征jiāzhēng新xīn關稅guānshuì关税guānshuì後hòu后hòu，北京Běijīng強硬qiángyìng强硬qiángyìng反擊fǎnjī反击fǎnjī，全球quánqiú市場shìchǎng市场shìchǎng為之wèi zhī为之wèi zhī震盪zhèndàng震荡zhèndàng，甚至shènzhì波及bōjí美國Měiguó美国Měiguó公債gōngzhài国债guózhài。中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó隨後suíhòu随后suíhòu祭出jìchū威力wēilì更gèng大dà的de手段shǒuduàn，放慢fàngmàn從cóng从cóng手機shǒujī手机shǒujī到dào飛彈fēidàn导弹dǎodàn都dōu需要xūyào的de關鍵guānjiàn关键guānjiàn金屬jīnshǔ金属jīnshǔ出口chūkǒu，暴露bàolù美國Měiguó美国Měiguó的de一項yí xiàng一项yí xiàng弱點ruòdiǎn弱点ruòdiǎn，也yě成為chéngwéi成为chéngwéi華府Huáfǔ华盛顿Huáshèngdùn對中duì Zhōng对华duì Huá鷹派yīngpài鹰派yīngpài的de一個yí gè一个yí gè關鍵guānjiàn关键guānjiàn轉折點zhuǎnzhédiǎn转折点zhuǎnzhédiǎn。

China, however, had long been ready for Trump’s return. After Trump launched a global trade war in April 2025 and slapped sweeping new tariffs on China, Beijing hit back hard. Global markets were shaken, and the turmoil even reached U.S. Treasury bonds. China then brought out an even more powerful weapon: it slowed exports of critical metals needed for everything from phones to missiles. This exposed a U.S. weakness and became a key turning point for Washington’s China hawks.

5在zài中方Zhōngfāng稀土xītǔ反制fǎnzhì威脅wēixié威胁wēixié下xià，川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ與yǔ与yǔ習近平Xí Jìnpíng习近平Xí Jìnpíng2025年nián10月yuè在zài南韓Nánhán韩国Hánguó釜山Fǔshān會面huìmiàn会面huìmiàn，同意tóngyì貿易戰màoyìzhàn贸易战màoyìzhàn休兵xiūbīng一年yì nián。自zì釜山Fǔshān會晤huìwù会晤huìwù以來yǐlái以来yǐlái，華府Huáfǔ华盛顿Huáshèngdùn對中duì Zhōng对华duì Huá鷹派yīngpài鹰派yīngpài都得dōu děi謹慎jǐnshèn谨慎jǐnshèn行事xíngshì，以免yǐmiǎn破壞pòhuài破坏pòhuài雙方shuāngfāng双方shuāngfāng緩和huǎnhé缓和huǎnhé關係guānxì关系guānxì，他們tāmen他们tāmen的de影響力yǐngxiǎnglì影响力yǐngxiǎnglì也yě早已zǎoyǐ開始kāishǐ开始kāishǐ減弱jiǎnruò减弱jiǎnruò。

Under the threat of China’s rare-earth countermeasures, Trump and Xi met in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025 and agreed to a one-year truce in the trade war. Since the Busan meeting, China hawks in Washington have had to tread carefully so as not to damage the thaw between the two sides, and their influence had already begun to fade.

6魯比歐Lǔbǐ’ōu鲁比奥Lǔbǐ’ào擔任dānrèn担任dānrèn聯邦liánbāng联邦liánbāng參議員cānyìyuán参议员cānyìyuán期間qījiān期间qījiān，是shì主要zhǔyào的de中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó批評者pīpíngzhě批评者pīpíngzhě之一zhīyī。沃茲Wòzī沃尔兹Wò’ěrzī遭zāo開除kāichú开除kāichú後hòu后hòu，他tā在zài續任xùrèn续任xùrèn國務卿guówùqīng国务卿guówùqīng的de同時tóngshí同时tóngshí接掌jiēzhǎng國安顧問guó’ān gùwèn国家安全顾问guójiā ānquán gùwèn職務zhíwù职务zhíwù，如今rújīn重點zhòngdiǎn重点zhòngdiǎn則zé则zé是shì落實luòshí落实luòshí川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ的de議程yìchéng议程yìchéng，並bìng并bìng維持wéichí维持wéichí與yǔ与yǔ習近平Xí Jìnpíng习近平Xí Jìnpíng的de關係guānxì关系guānxì。知情zhīqíng人士rénshì表示biǎoshì，他tā與yǔ与yǔ其他qítā鷹派yīngpài鹰派yīngpài都dōu知道zhīdào，為wèi为wèi川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ工作gōngzuò意味著yìwèizhe至少zhìshǎo在zài公開場合gōngkāi chǎnghé公开场合gōngkāi chǎnghé必須bìxū必须bìxū在zài中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó議題yìtí议题yìtí上shàng妥協tuǒxié妥协tuǒxié。

As a U.S. senator, Rubio was one of China’s leading critics. After Waltz was dismissed, Rubio took over the national security adviser role while staying on as Secretary of State. His focus now is carrying out Trump’s agenda and maintaining the relationship with Xi. People familiar with the matter say he and the other hawks understand that working for Trump means compromising on China — at least in public.

7川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ也yě並非bìngfēi并非bìngfēi完全wánquán壓制yāzhì压制yāzhì對中duì Zhōng对华duì Huá強硬qiángyìng强硬qiángyìng路線lùxiàn路线lùxiàn，但dàn在zài台灣Táiwān台湾Táiwān問題wèntí问题wèntí上shàng，他tā的de立場lìchǎng立场lìchǎng尤其yóuqí矛盾máodùn。川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ在zài去年qùnián10月yuè釜山Fǔshān川習會Chuān-Xí huì特习会Tè-Xí huì後hòu后hòu不到búdào兩個liǎng gè两个liǎng gè月yuè，批准pīzhǔn一項yí xiàng一项yí xiàng創紀錄chuàngjìlù创纪录chuàngjìlù的de111億美元yì měiyuán亿美元yì měiyuán對台duì Tái对台duì Tái軍售jūnshòu军售jūnshòu案àn。今年jīnnián稍早shāozǎo，在zài中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó警告jǐnggào這zhè这zhè可能kěnéng迫使pòshǐ北京Běijīng取消qǔxiāo5月yuè峰會fēnghuì峰会fēnghuì後hòu后hòu，川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ暫停zàntíng暂停zàntíng一項yí xiàng一项yí xiàng規模guīmó规模guīmó更gèng大dà的de140億美元yì měiyuán亿美元yì měiyuán對台duì Tái对台duì Tái軍售jūnshòu军售jūnshòu案àn。

Trump has not completely shut down the hard line on China, but on Taiwan his position is especially contradictory. Less than two months after meeting Xi in Busan last October, Trump approved a record US$11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Earlier this year, after China warned that it could force Beijing to cancel the May summit, Trump paused an even larger US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan.

8川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ之後zhīhòu之后zhīhòu在zài北京Běijīng與yǔ与yǔ習近平Xí Jìnpíng习近平Xí Jìnpíng會面huìmiàn会面huìmiàn，又yòu表示biǎoshì對台duì Tái对台duì Tái軍售jūnshòu军售jūnshòu是shì一項yí xiàng一项yí xiàng「很hěn好hǎo的de談判tánpàn谈判tánpàn籌碼chóumǎ筹码chóumǎ」，引發yǐnfā引发yǐnfā台北Táiběi方面fāngmiàn警戒jǐngjiè。許多xǔduō许多xǔduō中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó問題wèntí问题wèntí專家zhuānjiā专家zhuānjiā認為rènwéi认为rènwéi，習近平Xí Jìnpíng习近平Xí Jìnpíng將jiāng将jiāng施壓shīyā施压shīyā川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ，要求yāoqiú他tā以yǐ華府Huáfǔ华盛顿Huáshèngdùn挺台tǐng Tái人士rénshì無法wúfǎ无法wúfǎ接受jiēshòu的de方式fāngshì調整tiáozhěng调整tiáozhěng美國Měiguó美国Měiguó對台duì Tái对台duì Tái政策zhèngcè。

When Trump later met Xi in Beijing, he described arms sales to Taiwan as “a very good bargaining chip,” which alarmed Taipei. Many China experts believe Xi will press Trump to adjust U.S. policy toward Taiwan in ways that Taiwan’s supporters in Washington could not accept.

9前qiánCIA中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó問題wèntí问题wèntí專家zhuānjiā专家zhuānjiā秦江南Qín Jiāngnán（Jon Czin）指出zhǐchū，川普Chuānpǔ特朗普Tèlǎngpǔ非常fēicháng「希望xīwàng避免bìmiǎn任何rènhé可能kěnéng破壞pòhuài破坏pòhuài他tā與yǔ与yǔ習近平Xí Jìnpíng习近平Xí Jìnpíng君子協定jūnzǐ xiédìng君子协定jūnzǐ xiédìng的de行動xíngdòng行动xíngdòng或huò評論pínglùn评论pínglùn」，因此yīncǐ對中duì Zhōng对华duì Huá鷹派yīngpài鹰派yīngpài必須bìxū必须bìxū挑選tiāoxuǎn挑选tiāoxuǎn出手chūshǒu時機shíjī时机shíjī。他tā進一步jìn yí bù进一步jìn yí bù比喻bǐyù說shuō说shuō：「這zhè这zhè就jiù像xiàng在zài一口yì kǒu沸騰fèiténg沸腾fèiténg的de鍋子guōzi锅子guōzi上shàng蓋上gàishàng盖上gàishàng鍋蓋guōgài锅盖guōgài。能量néngliàng仍然réngrán存在cúnzài，偶爾ǒu’ěr偶尔ǒu’ěr也yě會huì会huì透過tòuguò透过tòuguò針對zhēnduì针对zhēnduì中國Zhōngguó中国Zhōngguó的de特定tèdìng安全ānquán行動xíngdòng行动xíngdòng滲出來shènchūlái渗出来shènchūlái，但dàn只有zhǐyǒu在zài鷹派yīngpài鹰派yīngpài覺得juéde觉得juéde自己zìjǐ不在bùzài索倫之眼Suǒlún zhī yǎn索伦之眼Suǒlún zhī yǎn注視zhùshì注视zhùshì之下zhīxià時shí时shí才cái會huì会huì如此rúcǐ。」

Former CIA China specialist Jon Czin says Trump very much “wants to avoid any action or comment that could undermine his gentlemen’s agreement with Xi,” so China hawks have to pick their moments. He offers a comparison: “It’s like putting a lid on a boiling pot. The energy is still there, and now and then it seeps out through specific security actions aimed at China — but only when the hawks feel they’re not under the Eye of Sauron.”